Does Public Opinion Affect Public Policy as Much as we Thought?

In an article by Paul Burstein, "Why Estimates of the Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy are Too High" we see strong research, and very well cited studies. The title of the article explains what exactly the author is talking about. He suggests that public opinion does not have as much of an impact on public policy changes as many academics thought. Using pieces of legislation, he analyzes which bills were salient issues versus non-salient. His findings indicate that of all public opinion being polled about, only two-thirds of the bills selected had any public opinion information on them whatsoever. That means of the bills passed in congress, one-third have no not been asked about by pollsters.

The article comes to two conclusions, (1) sampling bias has led political scientists to over estimate the impact of public opinion on policy change. (2) If this first conclusion is true, then democratic institutions have not been working as well as we thought. The more often the political process responds to public opinion the better the institution is working - because democracy is often evaluated by how much influence the public has. This conclusion holds significant implications, and could tell us a little bit of how the battle over marijuana will play out in the future. Aspects of Burstein's article tell us that while the public may favor an issue with majority opinion, this does not mean legislation will pass in lockstep with what the public thinks. This could be due to special interest groups, and non-attitudes. And even though public opinion favoring marijuana is on the raise according to Gallup, and individuals favoring legalization of marijuana has reached an all time high - does not mean politicians will listen to the public.

Federal law has been very hard on individuals who do not follow federal boundaries regarding medical marijuana. An issue with 70 percent approval rating nation wide. And although Attorney General Eric Holder said in a statement given in 2009, “It will not be a priority to use federal resources to prosecute patients with serious illnesses or their caregivers who are complying with state laws on medical marijuana, but we will not tolerate drug traffickers who hide behind claims of compliance with state law to mask activities that are clearly illegal.” The Federal government has continued to shut down a number of medical marijuana dispensaries, and arrest medical marijuana patients. These murky waters might tell us about how much of an impact public opinion has on public policy.