The divide between Generations X/Y and the Baby Boom Generation is growing on issue of marijuana. The younger generation seems to be more tolerant of cannabis than their parents. In the past forty years we have seen a steady increase in Public Opinion data favoring legalization; and now it is not a question of if but when it will be legalized. Recent studies by Gallup and other polling firms verify these findings, but the real questions seem to remain unanswered: What is going to happen when the majority of Americans favor legalization of marijuana?
American public opinion on marijuana was not shaped by one critical event; rather, it has been an accumulation of slow changes in social norms and policy. For instance a number of states have begun to legalize medical marijuana, and even recreational marijuana in Washington and Colorado. These changes push the public opinion's views towards major reforms on the marijuana laws. Questions about how to deal with medical marijuana, states rights versus federal law, Mexican drug cartels, and the war against drugs are now part of a major public forum in the United States.
One reason for the growing spot light is due to the increasing number of marijuana arrests per year. Since George W. Bush’s initiative in 2002 to reduce all illegal drug use by 25 percent over 5 years, the number of arrests for possession of marijuana has increased from 613,986 in 2002 to 775,137 in 2007(FBI Uniform Crime Report, 2009). The increase in number of arrests, and harsh punishments for possession of small amounts of marijuana has been changing the views of the American public, especially in medical marijuana states like California, Colorado, and Alaska. CBS/New York Times did a national survey in 2007 asking the question: Do you think possession of small amounts of 2marijuana should or should not be treated as a criminal offense? A majority of Americans (58%) believed small amounts of marijuana should not be treated as a criminal offense as opposed to only 10% in 1989. But policy change can sometimes be difficult even when there is overwhelming public support toward the issue. Medical marijuana for example was supported by 73% of individuals in a 2010 study by Pew Research Center. This suggests that while there is significant support for medical marijuana among Americans, the federal government refuses to act on behalf of the public. This begs the question why? An author by the name of Paul Burstein suggests that the impact of public opinion is slim to none. He provides an explanation, saying the government might be less responsive than political scientists have historically thought.
In an article titled, Why Estimates of the Impact of Public Opinion on Public Policy are Too High, Burstein comes to two conclusions (1) sampling bias has led political scientists to over estimate the impact of public opinion on policy change. And (2) if this first conclusion is true, then democratic institutions have not been working as well as we thought. To some, the more often a political process responds to public's desires, the better the institution is working. Democracy is often evaluated by how much influence the public has on its decision makers and policy changes. This conclusion holds significant implications, and could tell us a little bit of how the battle over marijuana will play out in the future. Moreover the idea that our democratic institutions on a federal level may not be functioning as well as we thought. Aspects of Burstein's article tell us that while the public may favor an issue with majority opinion, this does not mean legislation will pass in lockstep with what the public thinks.
In the past forty years support for marijuana legalization has been increasing; and now only seems to be a matter of time before others states start to tax and regulate recreational marijuana. It is only a matter of time before the government will have to reexamine its own policy on marijuana. Without public support, a War on Drugs will be impossible to rationalize in the future. Abraham Lincoln said it best, speaking of public opinion saying, “No policy that does not rest upon some philosophical public opinion can be permanently maintained.”
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